338Canada.com


Welcome to 338Canada.com!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

Projections and analysis by P.J. Fournier are regularly published by L'actualité magazine. Moreover, P.J. Fournier is a regular contributor to Radio-Canada and CTV Montréal.

You can visit the complete interactive map of the latest electoral projections here. Federal projections will be regularly updated until the 43rd Canadian federal elections, scheduled for October 21st 2019.

You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow P.J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!










Popular vote projection


Last update: October 21st 2018






Seat projection


Last update: October 21st 2018



Liberal Party of Canada & Conservative Party of Canada




New Democratic Party




Bloc québécois




Green Party of Canada







Odds of winning election


Latest update: October 21st 2018








Regional distribution


Averages of seat totals per region according to the latest Qc125 electoral projection (October 21st 2018)

Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Territories Projection average 2015 election
25.1 57.4 72.4 9.1 3.4 18.9 2.8 189.2 184
6.8 12.5 36.4 18.3 29.7 12.6 0 116.3 99
0 1.4 12.2 0.6 0.9 6.8 0.2 22 44
0 6.7 0 0 0 0 0 6.7 10
0 0 0 0 0 3.7 0 3.7 1
Total 32 78 121 28 34 42 3 338 338




Complete map of most recent Qc125 electoral projection (October 21st 2018)